Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
