It was 60 days ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
